US Rents Post Biggest Yearly Gain Since 2023 as October Prices Dip

Apartment rents across the US are higher than they were a year ago by the widest margin in more than two years, but renters actually saw asking prices slip in October, according to new monthly data from property software and analytics firm RealPage. The numbers also show the country splitting into two very different rental markets: Northern California and the Midwest are getting more expensive, while much of Texas and Florida is still getting cheaper.

The national picture

RealPage reported that same-store effective asking rents for new leases rose 1.7% in the 12 months ending in October. That is the strongest annual increase the firm has recorded since May 2023.

The month itself told a softer story. Asking rents fell 0.7% from September to October, the first monthly drop of 2026. RealPage attributed much of the improved annual figure to weak results from late 2025 falling out of the year-over-year comparison, rather than to strong pricing this fall. Rents usually cool in autumn as fewer people move.

Occupancy in professionally managed apartments stood at 95% in October, down 0.2 percentage points from September but still slightly higher than a year earlier, according to the firm.

Where rents are climbing fastest

The San Francisco Bay Area dominated the top of RealPage's list of the 50 largest markets:

• San Francisco: up 14.7% from a year earlier
• San Jose: up 9.5%
• Oakland: up 8.5%

All three are running at roughly 97% occupancy, which leaves renters with few vacant units to choose from and gives landlords room to raise prices.

The Midwest followed. Milwaukee led the region with a 4.2% annual gain, ahead of Chicago at 3.3%, Kansas City and Cleveland at 3.1% each, and Detroit and St. Louis at 2.7% each.

Where rents are still falling

Markets that saw a wave of new apartment construction in recent years continue to post annual declines. RealPage reported that San Antonio rents were down 2.6% from a year earlier, the steepest drop among large metros. Houston was down 1.8%, Tampa 1.0%, Charlotte 0.9% and Denver 0.8%. San Antonio also had the lowest occupancy of the 50 biggest markets, at 92.5%.

Still, the Sun Belt is no longer uniformly negative. The South as a whole returned to slight annual growth of 0.5%, and several metros turned positive, including Jacksonville at 2.6%, Raleigh at 1.0%, Atlanta at 0.8%, Austin and Miami at 0.6% each, and Phoenix at 0.4%.

Why it is happening

The construction boom that pushed rents down in many cities is fading. RealPage counted roughly 318,000 newly completed apartments in the year ending with the third quarter of 2026, about half the late-2024 peak, while renters absorbed nearly 304,800 units over the same period. With new supply and demand moving closer to balance, landlords in more markets have gained some pricing power.

Interest rates are part of that story, since expensive financing makes new projects harder to start. In its coverage of the data this week, HousingWire cited rental economist Jay Parsons, who argued that if borrowing costs stay elevated for a long stretch, the pipeline of new apartments is likely to stay thin for a long stretch too.

What this means for renters

• Use the seasonal dip. Asking rents typically soften between October and early spring. If your lease ends soon, it may be a good time to shop or to negotiate a renewal, especially in markets where occupancy is below about 94%.
• Look for concessions in oversupplied cities. In places like San Antonio, Houston and Tampa, new buildings are still competing for tenants. Ask about free weeks, waived fees or reduced deposits, and compare the net effective rent rather than the advertised price.
• Expect tougher renewals in tight markets. In the Bay Area and parts of the Midwest, budget for larger renewal increases and start talks early. Check whether your unit is covered by local rent stabilization or a state cap, such as California's statewide limit on annual increases for many older units.
• Remember these are asking rents. RealPage tracks prices offered on new leases in professionally managed buildings. Your own renewal offer, or rents in small landlord-owned buildings, may move differently.

Use our rent increase calculator to see what a proposed renewal would mean for your monthly budget.