San Francisco Rents Surge While Texas Metros Keep Falling

The U.S. rental market has split into two very different stories this fall. Reports released in late September and early October by Apartment List, Apartments.com and Zillow agree that the San Francisco Bay Area is seeing the fastest rent growth in the country, while several Sun Belt and Mountain West metros, led by San Antonio, continue to see prices slide.

The Bay Area leads by a wide margin

San Francisco appears at the top of each tracker, though the size of the increase depends on the method used:

• Apartment List reported that rents in the city of San Francisco are up 26% over the past 12 months, followed by Oakland at 16% and Boise, Idaho, at 11%. At the metro level, a summary by CRE Daily put San Francisco metro growth at 12% and San Jose at 9%.
• Apartments.com put annual growth at 12.8% in San Francisco, 8.2% in San Jose, 5.8% in Norfolk, Virginia, and 5.4% in the East Bay.
• Zillow reported San Francisco as the fastest-growing major market at 11.8% in September.

The Bay Area saw some of the steepest rent declines in the country after 2020 and built relatively few new apartments, so a return of demand has quickly pushed prices back up. The Norfolk-Virginia Beach area also shows up on multiple lists; Zillow's August report had Virginia Beach at 6.6% annual growth.

Texas and the Mountain West lag

At the other end, San Antonio stands out. Apartment List said the San Antonio metro has the sharpest annual rent decline among large metros, at 4.5%. Among the 100 largest cities, its steepest declines were in Garland, Texas (-4.4%), San Antonio (-4.3%) and Arlington, Texas (-4.0%). Apartments.com put San Antonio at -1.8% and Zillow at -0.7%, with the different figures reflecting different data sets, but all three show falling prices.

Apartments.com also listed Las Vegas (-1.3%), Denver (-1.0%) and Houston (-1.0%) among its weakest markets. Zillow reported Denver rents flat over the year. Many of these metros added large numbers of apartments during the post-pandemic construction boom, and landlords are still working through the extra supply. Austin's decline has eased to 2.1%, according to CRE Daily's summary of Apartment List data, compared with a 6.2% drop in 2025.

Regional pattern

Apartments.com's regional breakdown shows annual growth of 2.4% in the Pacific region, 2.3% in the Midwest and 2.2% in the Northeast, compared with just 0.2% in the South and -0.1% in the Mountain West. Monthly, the company said Indianapolis (+1.0%) and Louisville (+0.8%) were among the few markets where rents still rose in September.

What to watch next

The gap between hot and cool markets may narrow over the next year. Apartment List said 33 of the 55 large metros it tracks now show rents above year-ago levels, and Zillow reported that national annual rent growth has accelerated every month since April. As the backlog of newly built apartments in the Sun Belt is leased up, landlords in those markets may have less reason to discount. In the Bay Area, by contrast, any slowdown would likely depend on whether job growth and in-migration cool.

What it means for renters

• In fast-rising markets, act early on renewals. Bay Area renters should check whether their unit falls under local rent control or California's statewide cap, which limits annual increases on many older buildings. Know the allowed maximum before you accept a renewal.
• In softer markets, negotiate. Renters in San Antonio, Denver, Houston, Las Vegas and nearby suburbs can often secure concessions, waived fees or a lower renewal by pointing to comparable listings.
• Do not assume one index tells the whole story. Trackers measure different things, from new-lease prices to listing rents. Look at actual listings in your neighborhood and building class.
• Relocating? Factor in the trend. If you are moving from a soft market to a hot one, expect less flexibility on price, deposits and move-in dates.

Nationally, rents are close to flat or rising slowly. But for an individual tenant, the local market still matters far more than the national average.